The future of mobile development is in some level of browser capability common denominator. On the desktop we still see browsers with differing capabilities and our Javascript is filled with IF statements. CSS allows us to create styles to overcome screen resolutions. On the mobile device we add differing capabilities for Flash support (Lite, Full or None), differing screen sizes and differing interfaces (touch, scroll buttons, etc) Lots of IFs, lots of CSS

Add to this the rate of upgrade on mobile devices and we're dealing with a really mixed environment. HTML 5+ will certainly help but the rate at which folks upgrade will determine when we can 'assume' HTML5+ everywhere. On the desktop Flash is a major factor in providing a one-size-fits-all, on the mobile device, size is a factor as is the level of support on the mobile.

So what is this common denominator?in the short term 'helper' Javascript libraries and CSS. In the longer term HTML5+

The future is HTML (5/6/whatever). How we get there is with better tools for the job (I'm looking at you Adobe). A lot of developers don't understand the new technology and don't know how to make web sites work offline, make canvas, WebGL or web databases work.There's one other issue, which is data security. The web is far easier to pirate/hack/etc than natively compiled apps as they are available from anywhere. Perhaps when the browser can read compiled libraries things will move on. I'd love to see Angry Birds in the browser, but as a developer, would I want to start again in javascript? No.