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Many, many, many web designs already do not need Flash, nor JavaScript. Those being the many web pages that are simply static HTML, or use simple form input posts.
For those web designs which do use Flash, you need to consider:
How is Flash used? Create movies, animations, advertisements, rich Internet applications, manipulate vector graphics, manipulate raster graphics, bidirectional streaming of audio and video, alternative user interfaces, games, movies, advertisements. And I'm probably embarrassingly missing some major use cases.
Flash itself uses ActionScript, which is an implementation of JavaScript. (Or, well, technically ECMAScript, based on ECMA-262.)
So you are really distinguishing between Flash and the browser's DOM manipulating JavaScript.
For those web designs which do use Flash, you need to consider:
How is Flash used? Create movies, animations, advertisements, rich Internet applications, manipulate vector graphics, manipulate raster graphics, bidirectional streaming of audio and video, alternative user interfaces, games, movies, advertisements. And I'm probably embarrassingly missing some major use cases.
Flash itself uses ActionScript, which is an implementation of JavaScript. (Or, well, technically ECMAScript, based on ECMA-262.)
So you are really distinguishing between Flash and the browser's DOM manipulating JavaScript.
JavaScript that is part of most browsers (either baked in, or as a plug-in) is used to manipulate the DOM of the HTML. Lots of really cool things can be done with that DOM manipulation. Simple animations (q.v. TiddlyWiki and be utterly impressed at how freaking cool "simple" animations can be with just DOM manipulation!). Edits. Simple interactivity. AJAX (Asynchronous JavaScript And XML) based client-side interactive web applications.
But can the browser's DOM manipulating JavaScript... Play movies? Bidirectional audio and video? Manipulate raster graphics? Manipulate vector graphics*?
* SVG? Then yes, JavaScript can manipulate the SVG DOM.
All those "But can JavaScript..." can be answered with a qualified yes. That qualified part is "...if you add some other plug-in, then the browser's JavaScript can be the programming language which interfaces with that plug-in which provides functionality XYZ". Where XYZ is some specific functionality baked into Flash.
Even after all those browser + JavaScript + specific functionality plug-in are added up, they still don't tip the scale in their favor over Flash. Yet. Eventually, as W3C comes out with enabling specifications, and browser's become compliant with those specifications, and enough users use those browser's which implements those specifications -- then the browser's DOM manipulating JavaScript (plus all those other enabling technologies), and highly integrated developer productivity tools that handle those enabling technologies are widely available and affordable, then the situation will have reached the point that Flash is unnecessary for web design.
Also consider that there are competing technologies that are cutting into the Flash turf: HTML5, Silverlight, Java (which is a completely different "scripting language compiled to bytecode run on a VM" from the rather unfortunately similarly, confusingly named JavaScript). There are probably many others, those are the ones that come to mind first.
HTML5 is one of the products the ongoing W3C effort, mentioned previously.
Over the long haul, I expect Flash to either become an open standard, like PDF 1.4 has become (ISO 19005). Or it will fall by the wayside.
Then the question becomes "how long is that long haul"? My assessment is: More than ten years out.
But can the browser's DOM manipulating JavaScript... Play movies? Bidirectional audio and video? Manipulate raster graphics? Manipulate vector graphics*?
* SVG? Then yes, JavaScript can manipulate the SVG DOM.
All those "But can JavaScript..." can be answered with a qualified yes. That qualified part is "...if you add some other plug-in, then the browser's JavaScript can be the programming language which interfaces with that plug-in which provides functionality XYZ". Where XYZ is some specific functionality baked into Flash.
Even after all those browser + JavaScript + specific functionality plug-in are added up, they still don't tip the scale in their favor over Flash. Yet. Eventually, as W3C comes out with enabling specifications, and browser's become compliant with those specifications, and enough users use those browser's which implements those specifications -- then the browser's DOM manipulating JavaScript (plus all those other enabling technologies), and highly integrated developer productivity tools that handle those enabling technologies are widely available and affordable, then the situation will have reached the point that Flash is unnecessary for web design.
Also consider that there are competing technologies that are cutting into the Flash turf: HTML5, Silverlight, Java (which is a completely different "scripting language compiled to bytecode run on a VM" from the rather unfortunately similarly, confusingly named JavaScript). There are probably many others, those are the ones that come to mind first.
HTML5 is one of the products the ongoing W3C effort, mentioned previously.
Over the long haul, I expect Flash to either become an open standard, like PDF 1.4 has become (ISO 19005). Or it will fall by the wayside.
Then the question becomes "how long is that long haul"? My assessment is: More than ten years out.
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Ryan Quintal is frighteningly, frighteningly wrong. Endline confused Java with JavaScript which automatically and completely invalidates his entire answer. And Klassen "don't know a whole lot about FLASH."The answer is no. They are completely different things and both have their place.
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Eljay's anwswer says it all. As far as RIA is concerned, this is the one thing for me that really keeps flash alive thanks to Flex, the framework and the IDE. Tools. Adobe (and former macromedia) are champs at this thing. If developers didn't have such easy to use tools to create flash content, flash player adoption wouldn't have been that wide by the end users.A few (heavy) frameworks like Tibco's (anyone remembers Bindows ?) have tried to fill the gap in the DOM/CSS/js space but they all have issues with cross browser support and performance due to the lack of native support for the needed features in DOM/CSS/js.Take for example layout : Try comparing Flex's and CSS (even v3). No comment.
So when will flash become unnecessary for RIA ? When W3C will starts looking at Flex to get some inspiration, and standard technologies' tools will enable devs to take full advantage of the standards stack. This won't happen anytime soon.When will flash become unnecessary for animation ? With CSS3, HTML5 and SVG, i think this is going to happen soon.
So when will flash become unnecessary for RIA ? When W3C will starts looking at Flex to get some inspiration, and standard technologies' tools will enable devs to take full advantage of the standards stack. This won't happen anytime soon.When will flash become unnecessary for animation ? With CSS3, HTML5 and SVG, i think this is going to happen soon.
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I think that, for enterprise applications, Flex will be always a better option. Mainly because many of the companies never update their browsers or what so ever. With Flex you can contain the application and know that will work as it should ... ( well, or not work at all ... Ehhe )
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Moving between the two I find I miss the mature oop-ness of ActionScript 3 in JavaScript. JS feels like AS1 (using prototype).
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Sincerely my clients aim to use javascript instead of flash. For many reason like SEO or implementing company intranets into websites.Obviously flash has a lot of wonderful feature...but im still waiting html5 and css3.Love
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Flash has it's place secured as the banner/game/widget/video player of choice.
But with the wonkiness of flash playback and it's pre-compiled code I think javascript will win this race in the end. Don't get me wrong Flash will still exist but it will not be a part of the data-based web apps of the future except for the graphic manipulations side of webapps. Flex will keep it relevant for graphic apps - but don't expect to see any ecommerce or logins occuring via flash.
But with the wonkiness of flash playback and it's pre-compiled code I think javascript will win this race in the end. Don't get me wrong Flash will still exist but it will not be a part of the data-based web apps of the future except for the graphic manipulations side of webapps. Flex will keep it relevant for graphic apps - but don't expect to see any ecommerce or logins occuring via flash.
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It did not.
But it did reach a point where developers are in a wat 'forced' to do it in JavaScript. Safari Mobile (iPod Touc, iPhone and now the iPad) does not support flash, just a few days ago mozilla announced to stop supporting flash on the mobile browser. Adobe was happy when the iPad came out without flash. We are forced to be creative and do things in javascript.
At the point where we are talking about animation, JavaScript did reach a point where flash is unnecessary. But flash is a whole lot more than just that.
But it did reach a point where developers are in a wat 'forced' to do it in JavaScript. Safari Mobile (iPod Touc, iPhone and now the iPad) does not support flash, just a few days ago mozilla announced to stop supporting flash on the mobile browser. Adobe was happy when the iPad came out without flash. We are forced to be creative and do things in javascript.
At the point where we are talking about animation, JavaScript did reach a point where flash is unnecessary. But flash is a whole lot more than just that.
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Ooh, thanks for the great question, John! I don't know a whole lot about Flash or Flex but I'll give it a shot:
So Flash will be used less and less solely as a means for fancy imagery while browsers (mostly) and PCs become more capable.
And so Flash with Flex will find its place to power rias require the client-side processing and junk (maybe like Java / applets). Even with its improvements on accessibility with XML, to me the appeal gradually lessens to use Flash as a design tool when compared to the simplicity of well written HTML / CSS with unobtrusive JS accents.
I agree partly with Ryan. Maybe Flash will allow mobile browsers to display rich web-sites as Flash did for PCs before popular browsers really began bringing the thunder.
So Flash will be used less and less solely as a means for fancy imagery while browsers (mostly) and PCs become more capable.
And so Flash with Flex will find its place to power rias require the client-side processing and junk (maybe like Java / applets). Even with its improvements on accessibility with XML, to me the appeal gradually lessens to use Flash as a design tool when compared to the simplicity of well written HTML / CSS with unobtrusive JS accents.
I agree partly with Ryan. Maybe Flash will allow mobile browsers to display rich web-sites as Flash did for PCs before popular browsers really began bringing the thunder.
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I think there's two ways to look at this, flash can now export xml data and be read by browsers, java can animate elements of html and affect css properties. That being said i think it comes down to accessibility. Do more people turn java off, or disable flash? Java isn't at the point where flash is for animation, and i don't think anyone can say that flex is a simpler or more effective oop language. Javascript with the libraries and ease of use will eventually take over, until adobe pushes flash even further. IMHO design and usability are the focus of web dev. I think javascript is the answer, but flash still has its uses, i should also point out i use both, and it depends on the application.